AI will be a big year for open weights models, agents, hacks, new model architectures, legislation, legal cases and so much more. Welcome to battleground AI and the war for the future of technology.
These predictions make a lot of sense. They are more specific than many AI predictions I've read and each prediction carries huge ramifications to our culture.
The one major prediction I think you might have missed is with AI's recent advance in generating voices and likenesses, we will likely see a huge rise in identity theft and deepfake technology misuse blurring the lines between what is real and fake. This tech is now in the hands of the mainstream and not just media tech specialists.
Thanks for sharing, as crazy as 2023 has been, 2024 is going to be even more insane.
The examples with the uptake of coffee are copied from the book "Innovations and its enemies: Why people resist new technologies" by Calaestus Juma. (The 2nd chapter ). Great book, btw.
I like your articles, they really challenge my thinking, but I disagree with you quite a bit. You equate people wanting the enforcement of copyright laws to also apply to the re-sale of AI training (since it never shouldn't have) as being anti-AI. Using technology to steal doesn't make it not stealing. If we want to make it open source, then make it open source. Don't charge for use or access to the AI, and no one is allowed to copyright or make money off of anything generated by it. Inputting original content and having the AI edit it is very different than having the AI generate it and then a person editing it. People need to be honest and stop conflating the two. If the content generated was done so without being trained on any copyrighted material, then have at it.
I always enjoy your informed and thoughtful takes, and this piece is no different! I am definitely excited about the potential for AI to lead to a true paradigm shift in many areas of life.
These predictions make a lot of sense. They are more specific than many AI predictions I've read and each prediction carries huge ramifications to our culture.
The one major prediction I think you might have missed is with AI's recent advance in generating voices and likenesses, we will likely see a huge rise in identity theft and deepfake technology misuse blurring the lines between what is real and fake. This tech is now in the hands of the mainstream and not just media tech specialists.
Thanks for sharing, as crazy as 2023 has been, 2024 is going to be even more insane.
For those interested:
The examples with the uptake of coffee are copied from the book "Innovations and its enemies: Why people resist new technologies" by Calaestus Juma. (The 2nd chapter ). Great book, btw.
I like your articles, they really challenge my thinking, but I disagree with you quite a bit. You equate people wanting the enforcement of copyright laws to also apply to the re-sale of AI training (since it never shouldn't have) as being anti-AI. Using technology to steal doesn't make it not stealing. If we want to make it open source, then make it open source. Don't charge for use or access to the AI, and no one is allowed to copyright or make money off of anything generated by it. Inputting original content and having the AI edit it is very different than having the AI generate it and then a person editing it. People need to be honest and stop conflating the two. If the content generated was done so without being trained on any copyrighted material, then have at it.
I always enjoy your informed and thoughtful takes, and this piece is no different! I am definitely excited about the potential for AI to lead to a true paradigm shift in many areas of life.
Wonderfully written and sane points.
Regarding LAWS (lethal autonomous weapons), that is gonna come whether we like it or not. It’s moloch at work.
Any major power that doesn’t invest in autonomous distributed loitering surveillance/attack weapons is going to be left behind. It’s an arms race.
Nuclear bombs are great but very blunt. Autonomous drones are cheap, can be manufactured by the millions and precisely kill/disarm the enemy base.
Iran’s kamakaze drones are a great example.
It’s selection at work.